Demographic Transition in the World and the U.S.

Europe and America are growing older, while the Two-Third’s World is growing younger. The mean ages of the Two-Third’s World populations are often decades lower. Demographics also tie into economics and technologies. One of the ramifications of a globalizing economy is that simple jobs gravitate to the lowest wage workers, gradually creating a higher standard of living in the Two-Third’s World. The younger populations everywhere tend to be more conversant with the new technologies, and are acquiring the ability to possess them.

The U.S. already has a Hispanic-Asian-Black[1] generation that will impact the U.S. society in ways similar to that of the way Boomers influenced theirs. For example, the most used condiment in the United States is no longer catsup, but salsa. The number one breakfast bread is no longer toast, but tortillas. This group determined the election in November, and will likely do so in the foreseeable future.

Changing demographics have also become a permanent part of our ministry landscape. Seen from a religious perspective, there are more Muslims[2] in the U.S. than Episcopalians.[3] The largest Buddhist Temple outside of Asia is located in Los Angeles. Changing demographics are also altering the way Americans see America. The "Melting Pot" metaphor has been replaced by the "Salad Bowl." In a "Salad Bowl," all the diverse ingredients of the salad keep their identity while adding value to the whole.[4] The 2010 census revealed that 27.6 percent of the U.S. population is of color. That is against 24.9 percent of the population in 2000, and it will continue to grow.

Demographics are also helpful in determining the relevant strength of the social classes. For example, the largest single group in the United States is what Tex Sample calls “Respectables”.[5] They are the blue-collar hard-working poor. Mitchell places this number at sixty million adults.[6] Since the Great Recession, we can surmise that this number is growing.

When considering church attendance, class differences can often be more difficult to bridge than those of race or ethnicity. For example, all things being equal, a middle-class congregation will likely find it easier to make a connection with a middle-class family of color than with an upper-class family.

Another element of challenge for evangelical congregations is found when that church has experienced redemption and lift.[7] Their standard of living and standing in society has improved significantly. In such circumstances, it may be possible, for example, to motivate some of them to give money designated for ministry to the poor. However, only a few will follow God's call to minister to them. Sadly, it seems that redemption and lift has removed them from the biblical mandate to “preach the good news to the poor.”

Are there demographic transitions like these that have had an impact on your ministry? If so, how?

In the light of these demographics, along with many others, how will your church grow, if you don’t minister to the people of color in your community?

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[1] Probably in the signified order in size.

[2] More than four million Americans are followers of Islam, and almost 1.5 million are Black Muslims.

[3] John Naisbitt, and Patricia Aburdene.  Megatrends 2000: Ten New Directions for the 1990's.  New York: Avon Books, 1990, p. 297.

[4] Alvin Toffler.  Power Shift: Knowledge, Wealth, and Violence at the Edge of the 21St Century.  New York: Bantam Books, 1990, p. 250.

[5] Sample, Tex.  Blue‑Collar Ministry: Facing Economic and Social Realities of Working People.  Valley Forge, PA: Judson Press, 1984, p. 60.

[6] Arnold Mitchell. Nine American Lifestyles: Who We Are and Where Are We Going. Warner Books, 1984, p. 9-10.

[7] Donald McGavran was the first to use this phrase.  "Redemption and lift" was used to describe the socio-economic lift that occurred in families and societies that become Christian (McGavran 1980:295-313).